SSF Ferry ridership getting better, but still not quite up to par

The South San Francisco ferry terminal. Photo credit: Chris Stevens, via Flickr.

Ferries are great. They're one of the best bargains with which to tour a waterfront city.

In some areas -- such as Sydney, Seattle, New York City -- they're also a vital link in regional mass transit systems. Not so much in the San Francisco Bay Area. Here ferries may be convenient, but they're also expensive and redundant.

With BART, multiple bridges and an active bus system crossing the Bay, ferries are mostly a novelty -- and a costly one at that.

While Oakland and Marin ferries to San Francisco get decent passenger numbers, an 18-month-old ferry from Oakland to South San Francisco has been struggling to find riders. It started off with much fanfare, but once the novelty (and free first-week rides) wore off, ridership dropped and costs continued to mount.

One reason is that because the service is heavily geared toward those commuting to SSF from the East Bay, those who live in South San Francisco itself find it quite difficult to board the ferry. There is no real transit service from the bulk of South San Francisco to the ferry terminal, located on the far east side of the city, save for an inconvenient, infrequent shuttle that does not share any stops with mainstream SamTrans lines. Nor are there any sidewalks on the main walk to the terminal.

Ridership, as one might expect suffered, dropping to an average of just 136 passengers per day -- subsidized to the tune of more than $80 per trip -- in the ferry's second financial quarter.

So far the ferry, which costs commuters $7 each way, has tallied big bills. These include a new ferry terminal that cost about $26 million and a $2.6 million annual operating subsidy funded mainly by San Mateo County Measure A sales taxes. And, whether it hemorrhages money or not, the ballot measure authorizing the SSF Ferry requires it be funded for a minimum of five years, according to Joe Hurley, director of the San Mateo County Transportation Authority.

But in the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2013-2014, a couple exogenous events bumped up ridership. First, a short strike by BART workers in July, then a brief closure of the Bay Bridge during the week leading up to Labor Day. Also in July, a big change as Genentech, the biotech titan that dominates the east side of South City, began to offer fully subsidized rides for all its employees.
The results?



As this graph shows, ridership has grown to about 332 riders daily, on average -- about double what it had been a year earlier.

"I think we're moving toward the right direction," said April Chan, a planning a development officer for the San Mateo County Transportation Authority, which partially funds the SSF Ferry. "It's not there yet, but much better than in our last report."

Some members of the Authority's Citizen's Advisory Committee (disclaimer, your blog author is a member of said committee) said that the progress has been insufficient.

"This is not even close to acceptable," said CAC member Jim Whittemore at the CAC's monthly meeting on Tuesday. "I understand it's new and they're trying things ... but it's not good enough and needs to get better soon."

With the jump in ridership, the government subsidy has effectively fallen to "just" $33.72 per rider, per trip (below). By contrast, the median subsidy for a bus ride in San Mateo County is around $8 per passenger, with the largest subsidy for a regular SamTrans route being about $19 (for line 359, which is about to be cut).



Fringe benefits that come from a ferry system shouldn't be overlooked, said CAC member John Fox. For example, Fox pointed out that the agency that coordinates ferries in the Bay Area is called the Water Emergency Transportation Authority.

"I don't think you can compartmentalize this as a farebox recovery ratio," he said. "You have to fold in that this was for natural disaster preparedness."

The upward ridership trend is promising, but it remains to be seen how much of it was permanent and how much was the result of the BART strike. Moreover, unless Genentech keeps up its subsidy, ridership will drop precipitously. I like the concept of a ferry to the town I live in, but I'd rather see the money invested in a more cost-effective manner.

Update (Jan. 21, 2014): The Transportation Authority released addition figures after the initial blog post showing that ridership has dropped even further post-BART strike resolution. In December, the South San Francisco Ferry averaged fewer than 250 riders per day. Granted, December is a light month in most transit systems, but ridership had also dropped significantly in November, as shown in the graph below:

SamTrans plans radical service adjustments in 2012

Most SamTrans lines are beneath industry standards for both amount of trip subsidized and boardings per hour, according to officials at the transit system.

SamTrans, San Mateo County's mass transit authority, has been bleeding financially for years. In 2009, the agency cut service by about seven percent (down from the 15 percent initially proposed) and raised fares by 25 cents each way in order to trim about $7 million from its budget.

Even so, the cuts have not been enough. SamTrans has been running a "structural deficit" (one in which even in good economic times, expenditures exceed revenue) for almost a decade. This past fiscal year, that deficit initially amounted to nearly $30 million, leading to -- among other things -- a two-thirds cut in the District's contribution to Caltrain (which almost doomed the latter agency). SamTrans Chief Executive Mike Scanlon told me last year that while reserves had covered losses in previous years, it was "only a couple" more years until those reserves were depleted. Some have even theorized that SamTrans is on the brink of dissolution because of its poor financial state.

So it's no surprise that the agency is looking to completely revamp its service. The district is formulating what it calls the "SamTrans Service Plan," using a combination of professional planning, consulting and public input at a series of public workshops along the Peninsula.

The objective, according to SamTrans documents is to identify both service strengths and areas for improvement, as well as seek to improve ridership over the next five to 15 years. Ultimately, the agency seeks to become a more "market-responsive" entity.

"Our goal is to increase ridership and respond to the different markets in our community," said SamTrans planner Marisa Espinosa to about 20 members of the public and a number of transit officials gathered Wednesday at SamTrans headquarters.

SamTrans facts:
Vehicles: 399
Bus stops: 2,564

Employees
Bus operators: 294
Mechanics: 90
Administrative*: 301
Total: 685
*(Shared with Caltrain and San Mateo Transportation Authority)

Each weekday, according to the National Transit Database, more than 51,300 trips are taken on SamTrans -- less than one-tenth the number handled by San Francisco Muni. Passenger fares cover only about 18.6 percent of SamTrans' operating costs (actually an above-average figure for a suburban bus district), meaning that each bus rider's trip is subsidized about $5.14 from tax dollars.

In a series of public meetings culminating in a Wednesday workshop at the District's headquarters in San Carlos, officials gauged public reaction to three different alternatives for SamTrans' future. SamTrans planners and consultants briefed attendees about the process, including a summary of recent ridership studies, and collected instant feedback from clicker devices supplied to audience proposals about a series of proposed service adjustments.

The first alternative was simply to leave service more or less as it is now. While most of the audience liked that such an alternative would not drastically cut service, a full 50 percent of those voting thought the biggest drawback of that scenario was that it reduced opportunities for investment in new or productive service. Support for the "stand pat" alternative was lukewarm, with only 23 percent of the voters strongly supporting it.

Scenario number two would drastically increase service on the heavily traveled routes on El Camino Real, to as little as 10 minutes peak service between Daly City and Redwood City and 15 minute (all day) between Redwood City and Palo Alto. But such an increase would come as the price of reducing service on local, cross-town routes in San Mateo County. Some poor-performing routes (specifically lines 53, 58, 72, 132, 141, 280 and 294) might face elimination altogether.

While 73 percent of those voting thought that more-frequent service on El Camino Real would be the best outcome in this scenario, 7/12ths of those voting were not happy with the trade-off of cutting service to other routes. Only 19 percent of the voters strongly supported scenario number two, while 50 percent either somewhat or strongly did not support the scenario.

The problem with an El Camino Real emphasis, in my opinion, is that it is based on a false premise. Certainly the ECR routes are the most crowded, but that's because service is already so geared to serving the ECR corridor -- going back to at least the 1998 reorganization of SamTrans' service, which forced most service onto El Camino Real. I believe that if SamTrans is to attract the discretionary rider, it needs to have significant service near people's homes then get them onto ECR or to a train station for a longer commute.

The third scenario may be the most revolutionary, and potentially shows the most promise. This scenario would invest in the productive El Camino Real corridor, but also invest services in the "core market" areas (where housing denisty and transit use are greatest) of Daly City, South San Francisco, San Mateo, Redwood City and East Palo Alto. While some areas of the county might see reduced service (sorry Belmont) and there would be less service into downtown San Francisco, other services would gain.

To me, the best part of this plan is a service I have long advocated for: a limited-stop bus along El Camino Real. For nine years on the SamTrans Citizens Advisory Committee, I told administrators that it shouldn't take almost two hours to get from Daly City to Redwood City on the bus (some rush hour trips hit this mark). A bus that stops only once a mile or so (instead of the 1/4-mile between most stops) would cut a significant portion off that time. Santa Clara County VTA's line 522, which I took frequently while working in Santa Clara over the summer, has been a great success.

Besides the limited stop service, the frequency of regular buses on ECR would increase and important cross-town routes, like the 130 in Daly City/South San Francisco and the 296 (from East Palo Alto to Redwood City), would also come more often. Fully 58 percent of the audience somewhat or strongly supported scenario three (I was in that latter group).

Based on public input during the recent workshops, planners are scheduled to come out with a preliminary proposal over the winter. Following another round of public comment, a final proposal for service adjustments should be before SamTrans' Board of Directors in Spring 2012. SamTrans officials said they welcome continuing public input. Comments can be made online at samtrans.com, SamTrans on Facebook, or by calling (650) 508-6338.

Some of SamTrans' most heavily subsidized routes may face elimination under new service proposals. The route with the largest subsidy, Line 38, is used to transport homeless individuals to the Safe Harbor shelter near San Francisco International Airport.

SFSU students and opinions on mass transit

(The following is a repost from a class blog.)

Gas prices are near all-time highs, parking near campus has been horrible for decades, and bridge tolls have risen for those who must cross the bay.

All negatives for those who want to drive to San Francisco State.

More than 1.1 million trips are taken on BART or Muni each weekday, according to the Federal Transit Database. Advocates say it’s better for the environment and you don’t have to worry about parking.

Still there are SF State students who prefer the freedom of driving, as well as many who think parking at SFSU isn't worth the hassle. This audio "man on the street" story talks to both sides: Direct Link: Transit Man on the Street by John Baker

SamTrans releases probable final list of cuts

I had planned on posting this after the Citizen's Advisory Committee meeting tonight, but SamTrans e-mailed out a press release at 4:20 p.m. today. CAC members got an e-mail late Monday listing what will likely be the final proposal given to the Board of Directors next week.

The short of it? Not nearly as bad as could've been predicted -- unless you're a rider of express service, in which case it's worse than you might have thought.

In addition, the 25-cent fare increase first proposed by CEO Mike Scanlon in July, will be put into effect. SamTrans' base fare for local service will now be $2.

I'm as pleased as I can be, considering the somewhat dire news. My two pet areas, preserving late-night service and Line 17 out on the south San Mateo County Coast, were served. Also the KX, which I recently began taking to downtown San Francisco on nights I both work and have class, has been retained. Not so lucky are all other express routes, which -- save for Pacifica's DX line -- will be eliminated.

The relevant cuts, as presented by Chester Patton, Director of Bus Services:

Our proposal advocates preserving service for transit-dependent and low-income groups, and consists of the following elements:

Rather than shrink the daily service hour span, the new proposal retains the late night service for hourly workers at SFO and other locations served by routes 292, 297 and 397. This also avoids a commensurate reduction of paratransit service.
Express service to SF is eliminated (except for the KX). The high fares and exclusive nature of the express services generally do not serve our core transit-dependent ridership. Research indicates express riders have much higher incomes than local route patrons, and have alternative options such as shuttles, local routes, Caltrain and BART, or the personal automobile.
The eliminated express service would include: MX, NX, PX, RX, DX, and FX.
Retained would be the CX, which does not serve SF but already terminates at Colma BART; the CX has a local fare.
A new local fare feeder service, with 6 daily roundtrips, would provide an alternative for the higher ridership FX service, circulating in Foster City and terminating at Millbrae Intermodal Station, connecting with BART and Caltrain.
The KX is retained as a hybrid local-express, but is reduced to 60 minute service, and eliminates the Page Mill segment.
The only impact to EPA is changing the 280 from 30 minutes to 60 minutes.
The bi-directional 14 would change to one direction before 7am and after 4pm.
The poor-performing 342 in Millbrae would be eliminated.
The 390 and 391 would change from 30 minute to 40 minute service on weekends.
Route 141 would change from 30 minute to 60 minute service, but remain at 30 minutes during school hours.

These changes save approximately $6.3m annually; when coupled with the fare increase, the total becomes $7.5m. The savings for FY2010, however, would be approximately $3.1m for the service reductions and $3.8m if the fares were increased February 1, 2010.

After last month's public hearing, a director or two made the point that it would be difficult for the board to pick and choose which lines would go or stay. So it seems that SamTrans left it to the professionals, who came up with these cuts.

"We believe that this proposal best balances the need to lower costs with our priority of protecting our most transit-dependent riders," Patton wrote. "This proposal is only a partial solution to our financial imbalance, and it should be noted that this is only the first step. These cuts could have been much deeper, but we were reluctant to inflict additional hardship on our dependent patrons."

SamTrans still faces a structural deficit of nearly $30 million, and more cuts may be necessary. And it behooves us to consider that a lot of people involved with the district will be losing their jobs -- as many as 30 operators, according to one of my sources in the operators' union.

If the economy turns around and people begin flocking to mass transit in the interests of being green (both optimistic predictions, I know) we may lament a lack of foresight. But in the meantime, this proposal was about as good as we could hope to get.

Public hearing on SamTrans cuts brings out crowd

Just a part of the crowd at Wednesday's SamTrans Board meeting regarding service cuts.

Note: This post was live-blogged from inside the SamTrans Board room as the meeting progressed. Apologies for it seeming disjointed.

SAN CARLOS, Calif. — A packed house offered their opinions about the proposed cuts to SamTrans service at the District’s Board of Directors meeting Wednesday afternoon.

The proposed cuts were blogged about in this post.

Comments from the numerous speakers at the meeting will be added to 1,436 comments made at community forums, CAC meetings and mailed, e-mailed and telephoned comments to District officials over the past two months. The Board will make its decision on the level of cuts at its September meeting.

The relatively limited capacity of the Bacciocco Auditorium was quickly reached, with a line of standees along the back of the room. There was an announcement that the nearby SamTrans cafeteria was wired to carry the sound as well, and about 40 people took up the offer.

SamTrans Chief Operating Officer Chuck Harvey said, "The agency is in an financial crisis," noting that the district is facing a $28.4 million deficit. Thus far, prior to any service cuts, SamTrans has saived: $750,000 with a freeze on administrative raises; $250,000 by reorganizing; $1.75 million with a hiring freeze; and $1 million in fuel hedging.

Harvey noted that there had been many calls to raise fares to entirely cover the deficit, but such a measure would not be enough. "The problem is we’d have to raise the fares to four times what they are today, because we only get 20 percent of our operating costs through fares."

Fifty-one speakers addressed the board over the two-hour open comment section of the meeting. Highlights included:
* “SamTrans is the best part of my life,” said one elderly woman who asked that the eligible discount fare not be raised and that line 391 be allowed to continue to downtown San Francisco.
* One rider said she lives in San Jose and works at a Redwood City school and begged that line 270 be retained. Besides Caltrain passes, she also buys VTA and SamTrans passes (perhaps unaware that a two-zone Caltrain pass is taken as local fare on both VTA and SamTrans).
* Half Moon Bay’s interim City Manager, Michael Dolder, stated that SamTrans did not properly take into account greenhouse gas emissions as mandated by the California Environmental Quality Act.
* Howard Cohen, superintendent of the South San Francisco Unified School District, pleaded for the directors to not cut youth service: "Young people do not leave their constitutional rights at the school gates. I believe they do not leave them at the public bus doors as well."
* CAC chair Wayne Kingsford-Smith outlined CAC opinions outlined at last week's meeting. (My thoughts from last week are presented below).
* Dave Taylor, who claimed he “represents labor and working class” argued against a fare increase: "Handicapped and seniors have no increases coming up in their paychecks." (Well neither do the rest of us right now, I reply.)
* One lady, arguing for the retention of line 17 on the San Mateo County Coast, noted through a Spanish translator that, “It’s better for seniors to take the bus than have seniors driving.”
* “For the love of God, what is Schwarzengger doing to us?” said an angry supporter of the 295, drawing approvals akin to a revival meeting from several members of the audience. The California governor cut state transit subsidies for the next three to five years after a number of budget initiatives failed in May's special election.
* Menlo Park councilmember Andrew Cohen said that cutting bus service at the same time large infrastructure programs are planned to take place on the Caltrain/California High-Speed Rail tracks 300 feet from his home is like “telling the poorest members of our community to eat cake.”
* SamTrans bus operator Pat Ketcham cautioned against wholesale cuts, stating that his bus is packed after 10 p.m. He said operators are concerned for the low-income riders who utilize the service and that operations staff is aware of the gravity of the financial situation. “The strength of a country is in how it treats its poor,” Ketcham said. “Our drivers are open, we understand reason. We are not closed-minded.”

After closing the hearing, the Board went into a brief recess prior to its regular meeting. As is typical at public hearings, board members were not permitted to discuss the issues related to the public hearing. Redwood City Councilman Jim Hartnett, a member of the SamTrans Board, did make one point in the regular session -- the Board does not have the technical skills to handpick which routes to save and will probably need to pick from the tiered alternatives.

"It's not what choices we have, it's what level we pick," Hartnett said. "From a financial point of view, we could easily justify a 15-percent cut or more. The real change that has to occur is a structural change. We don't have the money in the best of times to provide the level of service we do."

My opinions, as I expressed them at last week’s Citizen’s Advisory Committee meeting:

• Agree with (others) that a centralized, consolidated express bus from Belmont with an additional stop at Hillsdale/101 would be a good cost-saving idea. Though I must state for the record that I do not agree with proposals for having KX skip the airport and have those riders take BART (I have a long-standing disapproval of plans where a higher-priced alternative to SamTrans is promoted until and unless those routes [Caltrain or BART] accept SamTrans fare media).

• I have long favored reducing frequency over absolute cuts, back to the 193 and 282 eliminations a few years ago and the first time the 17 was slated to be eliminated. In particular as relates to the Pescadero to Moss Beach route 17, we cannot cut off our poorest, most-needy customers on the coast.

• I believe that 10 p.m. is absolutely much too early to stop El Camino Real service, even on weekends. Too many of our traditional demographic riders must work unconventional hours. Our downtowns and SFO are open well past midnight. When I was a dispatcher, I know we kept a lot of potentially unfit drivers off the road by suggesting a convenient SamTrans bus.

• I do believe route consolidation might be able to get us some of the savings we need. I do, however, worry that longer routes will mean more fatigue for our operators and want to confirm that they would get appropriate rest for both their safety and ours.

• Symbolism is important – to the public, the operators and mechanics, and to me. If SamTrans administration is going to get any wage concessions from its employees and/or lay them off, it would be a bold, affirmative step if there was an equivalent cut in administrative costs, either through wage cuts or redundancies.

• Finally, this process seems to have moved along haphazardly. To say the district needs to cut costs by an undetermined point and then leave it up to the board to make decisions has, I believe, left the public a bit befuddled and made it more difficult for transit advocates to respond. If we had had a definite plan to respond to, rather than a series of “what ifs,” it would have been easier for community groups to come up with a workable alternative. The issues have been too diffuse for my tastes. It almost feels like a cynical attempt by the administration to pick, say, a middle proposal and then have them be able to go to the public looking for congratulations by saying “Hey, we didn’t cut it as much as we could have.”

Name and shame

Seen at a San Diego Trolley stop in Chula Vista:
I personally don't think "name and shame" tactics work, and quite frankly pass re-sales like this are a natural outgrowth of the San Diego Transit system eliminating transfers earlier this year. SamTrans is planning a day pass once new fare boxes are installed system-wide. Will we see something like this at San Mateo County busstops?

Catchup week on the blog -- Part 3: SamTrans now faces fare hike

Ian might have to wait a little longer -- and pay more -- for his next SamTrans bus.

There was no good news for riders at this month’s SamTrans Board of Directors meeting. In fact, the bad news from last month was piled upon.

For the first time, transit directors spoke of the potential need – beyond the potential 15 percent service cuts already announced – to raise fares by 25 cents, just months after another fare increase and weeks after SamTrans officials said that no increase would be sought in these troubling times. SamTrans CEO Mike Scanlon said he had heard from some riders that they would prefer a fare increase to serious service cuts.

“It’s a distasteful (idea), but perhaps a little less distasteful than others,” Scanlon said while addressing the Board. “It would be another tool in the toolkit. Whether you use it or not is up to you.”

Scanlon suggested that a fare increase would potentially reduce the need for some of the more harsh service cuts proposed and would translate into a $2 basic fare for SamTrans, with passes going up by the same ratio as cash fares. Scanlon said his “worst dreams” do not envision the fare going beyond $2 at this point.

The proposed cuts (most of which I discussed last month) will be discussed at a series of community meetings (including July 27 at the South San Francisco Municipal Building at 6 p.m.) and a formal public hearing during the Aug. 12 regular Board meeting at 2 p.m. The SamTrans Citizens Advisory Committee (of which your blogger is a member) will also discuss options at its meeting on Aug. 5 at 6:30 p.m.

When the previous fare increase was announced near the end of last year, I had wondered – I admit I do not recall if I raised the possibility with anyone else verbally – whether we should just raise fares to $2 then in order to build a reserve and prevent a situation like the one the District is facing now. It now seems like that would have been a good idea. Oh well, hindsight is 20-20.

But I almost feel Scanlon’s fare proposal is a cynical attempt to either increase fares and say “Hey, at lease we preserved service,” or to have the Board not adopt the fare increase, but make cuts and say, “Hey, at least we kept fares down.”

It’s not helping that SamTrans management’s actions are worrying the rank and file. The District recently made an offer to spare about 20 jobs to the union if it would forego a scheduled pay raise. But, as the details were extremely vague, the proposal was not voted on at the June union meeting.

With as many as 70 layoffs on the table in the fourth quarter of this year, it’s no wonder one operator told me that “people are scared” and another admitted, “We see the economy; we see concessions; we are not without reason.”

But there’s another worry. This recession will not last forever, and times will improve. Ridership tends to rise and fall with the economy (we saw it in the last dot-com bust and boom cycle and, illustratively, SamTrans ridership is down 4.6 percent from this time last year) and it will one day improve – meaning the need for more service and more maintenance staff and bus operators. A little more long term, this is an environmentally conscious county, with more and more people turning to “green” transportation like mass transit. The District will need the staff to serve those people and I worry that mass reductions in staff will make it all the more difficult to increase service when needed.

Of course, that scenario may not come for a long time, and a nearly $30-million deficit now needs to be addressed. Do I have answers? No, not really.

I do think cutting the full 15 percent and eliminating express routes is out of the question (and I say that as an exclusive rider of local routes, BART and Caltrain). Maybe having some more-attractive service, like a limited-stop line on El Camino Real, will help draw riders and funds. I also think some line consolidation, minor service cuts, some modest union givebacks and, yes, the fare increase may be necessary. But a line needs to be held after this. We need to preserve transit professionals’ jobs with a view toward a busy transit future and need to do things with a mind toward attracting riders, not scaring them off.

There were also some interesting Caltrain facts presented at the July 8 meeting: a rash of Caltrain suicides have been in the news lately, but staff pointed out that there are an average of nine suicides on the Caltrain tracks annually – that’s nine out of about a 250 annual suicide average in the three-county service area (or 3.6% of people who decide to kill themselves in San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties). Chuck Harvey, Caltrain and SamTrans' COO, also said about 40 people have been taken into custody in recent months for their own protection.

SamTrans public hearing set for ... sometime

The San Mateo County Transit District's board of directors did as expected on Wednesday and scheduled a public hearing on potentially significant service cuts.

I use the term "scheduled" loosely, as the directors set the public hearing for some vague, unidentified time in "late July or early August."

(Disclaimer: The loose schedule is distressing to me. I am a member of SamTrans' "Citizen's Advisory Committee," which offers its input to the board regarding transportation matters but wields no actual power. We have no meeting scheduled for July and our August meeting is on Aug. 5. The CAC would like to have a well-thought-out opinion for the board, but right now it's looking like the board might have the hearing before our meeting.)

As I wrote last week, SamTrans is faced with a budget deficit of about $30 million and Chief Operating Officer Chuck Harvey is exploring services cuts up to 15 percent to close the gap.

A public hearing is legally required before any cuts are put in place, and SamTrans also hopes to hold four community meetings in different areas of the County before the directors vote on a proposal, probably at their September meeting.

Harvey presented the directors with a couple different proposals Wednesday. Outlining what he expected with a 7.5-percent cut, Harvey said: Lines MX, NX, PX/RX and 342 would be eliminated; Lines KX and 397 would be reduced to 60 minute headways in off-peak and weekend hours; and Lines 292, 390 and 391 would end service at 10 p.m. on weekends.

Under a 15-percent reduction, all of the above would occur, plus: Lines 141, 270, 280 and 295 would be eliminated; Line 391 would no longer provide service to San Francisco; and Lines 292, 390 and 391 would end service at 10 p.m. seven days a week.

"It seems to me that 7.5 percent is a minimum -- I hope 15 percent is an absolute maximum," said director, and Redwood City Councilmember Jim Hartnett. "I would suggest (staff) not be hesitant to come up with a different percentage in-between. (But) 7.5 percent is not going to get us where we need to go."

SamTrans CEO Mike Scanlon told the directors that SamTrans actually would rather add services, especially in the face of what he called "the most-enlightened federal policy in years." Most federal transit funds, however, are being distributed for capital projects rather than operational costs.

"We don't want to leave our most vulnerable (patrons) in a bad situation while we're supposed to be an answer in a sustainable society," Scanlon said. Paraphrasing a proverb, he added, "We're definitely going through Hell right now, but we're going through it. I hope the other side is not far away."

Years of the now-ended practice of subsidizing BART operations in San Mateo County continue to plague SamTrans financially, Scanlon added, and ultimately the agency might "need to get out of the Caltrain business" in order to properly run the bus system.

According to SamTrans Chief Financial Officer Gigi Harrington, SamTrans is providing $16.5 million for Caltrain operations this year, compared to Santa Clara VTA's $16.3 million and San Francisco Muni's $7.2 million.

One more sign of the distressing situation local newspapers find themselves in: once upon a time, our three local dailies would have pounced on this important story. Yet staffing cuts (the San Mateo County Times once had a dedicated transporation beat reporter) have taken their toll -- not one word of this proposal has made it into the Times, San Mateo Daily Journal or the Daily News.

SamTrans may cut service by 15 percent in face of $30 million deficit

SAN CARLOS, Calif. -- The San Mateo County Transit District faces an unexpected $30 million budget deficit and may have to cut service by up to 15 percent as soon as September, transit officials said Wednesday night.

Chief Operating Officer Chuck Harvey told the district's Citizens Advisory Committee that the economic downturn, lower sales tax revenues and a cut in state transit subsidies have caused an unprecedented budget shortfall for SamTrans. California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger this week cut the transit subsidy for the next three to five years after a number of budget initiatives failed in May's special election.

"I certainly wish I was here to talk with you tonight with better news," Harvey told the CAC. "This is an evolving issue that is literally changing hourly."

(Disclaimer: Your blogger is a member of the SamTrans CAC.)

While no fare increase is on the horizon, Harvey said, the possibility exists that SamTrans -- which just raised its base fare by 25 cents in February -- may need to ask for one in Fiscal Year 2011. Harvey stated that a fare increase would only improve revenue by a couple million dollars -- a pittance in face of a $30 million deficit. Service cuts are more effective, said the SamTrans COO.

"We don't want to balance our budget on the back of our riders," Harvey (right, at podium) said.

SamTrans staff will go before the district's board of directors next Wednesday to ask them to schedule a public hearing and a number of public meetings in July, with the board making a recommendation on cuts in August. Any changes would likely take place sometime in the third quarter, Harvey said.

"We simply cannot survive as an agency with a $30 million deficit," Harey said. "This causes us to make some difficult choices now."

The board could choose to cut service by less than the 15 percent staff is planning for, Harvey said, and any changes in bus service would also be reflected in similar cuts in paratransit services. According to Harvey, the agency would also reorganize its administrative side, with job cuts to senior staff and administrative personnel.

Harvey said it is too early to point out any specific cuts, but noted that if the board recommends the full 15 percent cut, lines 295, 342 (which Harvey said is the least cost-effective line in the system, with an average of 140 riders spread over 20 daily runs) and most express services would be completely eliminated. Other lines would see a reduction in service frequency.

But ridership numbers cannot be the sole determining factor in the cuts, Harvey said, thanks to Title VI of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, which seeks to "fairly" distribute transit resources among the entire population.

"We can't reduce service based simply on mathematics," Harvey said. "I can't tell you what impact (the deficit) will have on both SamTrans and Caltrain."

A silent Arrival

A couple weeks ago, just before reading Laika, I took the opportunity to pick up Shaun Tan's 2006 graphic novel The Arrival from the library.

Claire bought The Arrival as a gift for her cousin, who at the time was exploring her family's immigration from China, about a year ago. While it looked intriuging laying on our floor prior to the gift-giving, I never bothered to pick it up as I literally judged the book by its cover. The sepia-toned cover of a man looking at what appeared to be a small alien made me think of it as a sci-fi novel, and I avoided it. Mistake.

In the book, we follow an unnamed immigrant who begins a new life. He starts off saying goodbye to his family in what seems a familiar (perhaps Eastern European) land at the turn of the last century. As he crosses the ocean, we start to see a little bit of strangeness. His fellow passengers, for example, seem a motley bunch. They dress unusually (compared to our immigrant) and are not at all ethnically homogenous. As the ship approaches the new country, we see unusual, unidentifiable birds fly by. The ship comes into a port dominated by strange statues, wild architecture and populated by strangely dressed people of an indeterminate race. We follow the immigrant around in his explorations where even the alphabet is strange, where the food seems unusual and people keep what seem to be aliens as pets. We are as disoriented as the immigrant, and that's the point.

Oh yes, there's not a single written word in the book. The story is completely art-driven.

I caught on pretty quick to The Arrival's main twist: the fantastical creatures and landscapes are simply meant to represent a new immigrant's disorientation in a strange land. But that's fine, it's not meant to be a Sixth Sense-type reveal and I certainly don't think it's a spoiler to talk about it. The beauty in Tan's approach is that had the artist taken the straightforward approach of realistically showing an immigrant going about his business in 20th Century America or Australia, we wouldn't empathize as much with the protagonist because we wouldn't feel the same sense of disorientation the immigrant feels.

As for the other distinguishing feature of the book, silent comics have been around for decades. The first one I remember reading was 1986's Marvel Fanfare No. 29, a fun John Byrne Hulk story that had been pulled from the regular series due to Jim Shooter's editorial interference (despite continuing Byrne's underrated split-Hulk storyline and having a key appearance in the ongoing line-wide Scourge story). Marvel again went silent in December 2001, with "'Nuff Said!" -- a nearly line-wide run of silent comics named after Stan Lee's famous catchphrase. That event was a mixed bag, but did reveal some gems.

The trick works well in The Arrival. Tan's art, though it looks like it was sketched with charcoal, is crystal clear. Tan is a good storyteller, with a clear panel flow. Despite the intentionally unfamiliar surroundings and backgrounds, I never once had trouble following what was going on. The immigrant's adjustment to his new home, his search for work and his quest to reunite with his family are all well-documented despite nary a sound effect.

(Below: No words, no problem.)

The Arrival is a fine addition to one's graphic novel library. It has a unique style which combines both extreme realism and the fantastic, often in the same panel. Tan's work will appeal to anyone with an interest in the struggles of the immigrants which made up this country.

(Update: Aug. 28, 2009. Upon further reflection, I now recall that Marvel Fanfare 29 is not completly silent, it just includes long stretches of art without dialogue. The story is still notable, however, in that it is composed entirely of splash pages.)

Fuel cell bus coming to SamTrans, but don't expect to ride it

A Santa Clara County VTA fuel cell bus similar to ones local transit agencies will evaluate this year.

SAN CARLOS, Calif. -- While SamTrans may soon be getting a hydrogen-fueled bus, don't expect a fleet of the fuel cell buses taking passengers around the streets of San Mateo County anytime soon.

David Olmeda, SamTrans' director of maintenance, updated the district's Citizens Advisory Committee (of which your blogger is a member) on Wednesday about a pilot program that will see 12 of the so-called "zero emissions vehicles" go to Bay Area transit districts this calendar year. One will go to Samtrans, which will run road tests on it.

"Do we know if the vehicle works? Yes, it does." Olmeda told the CAC. "Is it ready to replace diesel vehicles now? No, it is not."

Hydrogen fuel-cell engines, at least in the type envisioned by SamTrans, use a chemical reaction between hydrogen (the most plentiful element in the universe) and zinc to produce electricity and power the bus. While these vehicles are touted as "zero emissions," they do indeed emit significant amounts of water vapor -- also a greenhouse gas, although nowhere near as potent in climate change as carbon dioxide.

The 12 examples, purchased by the Metropolitan Transportation Commission from Gillig at a per-bus cost of $2.1 million each (more than five times the cost of a typical diesel bus), will be leased to a variety of transit agencies, including AC Transit, San Francisco Muni and Santa Clara County's VTA, as well as a single example for SamTrans. AC Transit, which has a hydrogen-fueling facility in Emeryville, will get the bulk of the order and test the buses in revenue services. [Clarification (March 15, 2:08 p.m.) -- reader Chris Peeples points out in a comment below that these buses are actually being purchased on an AC Transit contract (MTC was involved in the planning) and are not being built by Gillig. I believe he fact sheet I got at the meeting stated Gillig, but I have recycled it and can not verify in what context Gillig was mentioned. I apologize for the error.]

SamTrans, however, would not have the benefit of fueling facilities and would have to get its hydrogen either from Emeryville or VTA -- burning off a significant portion of the bus' range before it even gets into San Mateo County. Short of expensively trucking in a hydrogen fuel truck, it is therefore unlikely that everyday SamTrans riders will get a lift in a hydrogen bus soon.

Vancouver, which has ordered 21 of the hydrogen buses in preparation for the 2010 Winter Olympics, will be the biggest road tester of Gillig's hydrogen bus and will be looked upon to provide feedback for transit agencies across the continent.

"If performance from zero-emission buses is not what we're expecting, we may pursue other alternatives," Olmeda said. Such alternatives may include a wider use of bio-diesel. "It's a little more mature technology and can offer some benefits to us until we decide where technology takes us."

Olmeda did note that a combination of new, lower-polluting buses and the re-engineering of some older vehicles has more than halved SamTrans' pollution since 2002.

Needless to say, I'm pleased

Say hello to my little friend!

If there was any doubt that I had readers of this blog, it was erased when today -- back at work for the first time in more than a month -- the first words from my co-workers (after a salutatory greeting) were "Did you get your iPhone back yet?"

And, thankfully, I could say "YES!"

The DHL deliveryman came to my door at about 2:30 p.m. on Monday with a package from Sydney. Inside was the little piece of technology that has led to such pain and joy the last two weeks, none the worse for wear. I had briefly, and perhaps insanely, worried that it wasn't my iPhone that was found in the Air New Zealand lounge, but rather some other unlucky traveler's. But as I opened the package and found my leather-covered iPhone with a picture of Ian and his cousin Ellie on the home page, I was ecstatic.

So special thanks to Linda Falardeau of Sydney, who -- based only on the recommendation that I was a friend of a friend -- trekked out to Kingsford-Smith International Airport*, found the United Airlines office, then took the time to go to a courier and ship my phone. And what reward did she want? Nothing, other than the costs of shipping the phone. Well, she's getting a shout out in this blog as well.

I thought foundly of her as I was checking my e-mail and watching an episode of Doctor Who on the bus ride home tonight.

* Speaking of Kingsford-Smith airport, I found out the other day that Charles Kingsford-Smith, the Australian aviation pioneer for whom the airport is named, was a great-uncle of Wayne Kingsford-Smith -- who was re-elected chair of SamTran's Citizen's Advisory Committee last week (over me).

Mayors, libraries and buses

One of the best parts of living in medium-sized town is that one's not too far removed from their political representatives.

For example, I basically had dinner tonight with the mayor of South San Francisco, Karyl Matsumoto, one night after which she was selected by the council for her third (non-consecutive) term in the office. Matsumoto represents north county cities on the SamTrans Board of Directors and showed up at tonight's SamTrans Citizens Advisory Committee for our annual "thank you" celebration. (Only Matsumoto and Shirley Harris attended our meeting, a disappointing one-sixth of the Board).

Matsumoto and I spoke about several issues in South San Francisco, including the decrepit Caltrain station and her selection as mayor the night before (a ceremony which I attended with Ian -- there was a great non-taxpayer funded food spread!). But we mostly spoke of the need for a new main library in South City to replace the current overcrowded 1960s-era facility. As a former South San Francisco Library Trustee, I am familiar with the fact that there is not enough room for all the library's books now, not to mention all the assorted DVDs, audio CDs and computers. The aisle space is limited and much of the building barely skirts ADA requirements. Due to a small property footprint, there is no room on the current site to expand and very little room in the city to build a new library.

The new mayor's idea to use the city's Redevelopment Agency to leverage funds for a new building intrigued me. As a redevelopment agency's mandate is to stimulate growth in blighted areas, I think a new library is a very appropriate use of such funds. New libraries recently built in Cerritos, San Mateo and San Jose have both improved their surrounding neighborhoods and helped keep libraries relevant in this modern era. Some have said that the library's day is past, but I disagree. Information is more important than ever, and libraries are still the information centers of many cities. They provide not only books, but DVDs, Internet access, homework tutoring and much more. Often they also serve as a community center as well. The time has come to build a new main library in South San Francisco.

(The mayor and I also discussed sites, including land the city recently bought from a defunct auto dealership, but I think that's supposed to be hush-hush for now.)

In the CAC meeting itself, we discussed a number of issues including the pending purchase by the district of new Gillig buses to replace some 15-year-old models. Apparently the technology in seat construction has advanced to the point where the seats can be made thin enough that you can put an extra row in a bus without reducing the pitch (or legroom) for existing passengers.

We also held our reorganization meeting, deciding on our chair and vice chair for the year. Besides managing our meetings, the chair is the public face of the CAC and briefs the actual board of directors on our activities and concerns. I had let the nominating committee know that I was interested in the post, not that I have any real problems with our current chair Wayne Kingsford-Smith, but I thought that I could be a little more visible before the Board and with the public. Then I learned that Kingsford-Smith was interested in another term and I had a dilemma: do I pursue my campaign or bow to Wayne's experience?

I put off a decision while I was in Australia, then -- when my name came up tonight and Kingsford-Smith and I were put into competition -- decided to defer. When offered the chance to give a statement, I endorsed Wayne and asked to be considered for vice chair. Wayne was elected unanimously.

Peter Ratto and I were the candidates for vice chair. In debates, I stated that I was happy that the CAC has over time better focused on its mission of advising the Board and that my platform would continue to focus on my pet issues of east-west feeder transportation in San Mateo County and connectivity between buses and trains. Ratto, to my gratitude, endorsed me for vice chair much as I had endorsed Wayne. I was also elected unanimously. After the fact, I wondered if I had violated some protocol by voting for myself ...

In other news, my iPhone has been liberated from the United Airlines office in Sydney and should at this very moment be jetting over the Pacific thanks to the folks at Australian Airborne Express. Let's hope Qantas' famed safety record (made famous in "Rain Man") continues at least until this weekend.

I'm voting tomorrow -- Yes on Prop. 1A

Since I'll be out of the country next week, I have to vote this week and will fill out my mail-in ballot tomorrow.

Between my right to a secret ballot, some remaining indecision on my part and my previously expressed desire to appear neutral, I'm not going to burden the reader with most of my political decisions. But there is one measure I support wholeheartedly: California's Proposition 1A -- the High Speed Rail initiative.

The Proposition would set aside about $9 billion dollars to serve as seed money for a "bullet train" between Los Angeles and San Francisco. The bond money would be supplemented with promised federal and private funds to begin operations. The train will take passengers from city center to city center in about 2.5 hours (less time than in air travel once security and travel to-and-from the airport is taken into account) for the same price as plane fare. Eventually, proponents hope, the system would be extended to Sacramento and San Diego as well.

The Los Angeles Times, the San Francisco Chronicle and other local papers have advocated its passing -- as has Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the San Mateo County Transit District, whose board I addressed prior to its endorsement.

Some opponents question the wisdom of increasing the state's bond indebtedness in a time of such fiscal trouble. Under most situations, I'd concur. But this proposition is the rare exception because it will directly address the current economic concerns. Analysts estimate that high-speed rail's construction will result in 162,000 construction jobs while the system is built and several thousand permanent operations job will follow. It's like a mini-WPA!

What's even more important, in my view, is the fact that high-speed rail will -- thanks to its electrified line -- prevent thousands of tons of greenhouse exhaust gasses from entering the atmosphere annually. On a more provincial level, the line will benefit San Mateo County substantially, as the California High-Speed Rail Authority will use the Caltrain right-of-way. This means the CHSRA will be the one paying for sorely needed local grade separations and electrification projects.

Several years back (2001-2002) I had the privilege of serving with the chairman of the California High-Speed Rail Authority, the Hon. Quentin Kopp ( right) while I was a member of the San Mateo County Civil Grand Jury and he was its advising judge. Judge Kopp impressed me with his vast knowledge, friendly, no-nonsense manner and interest in transportation. Later, I had further contact with him while as a public safety dispatcher for the County of San Mateo, wherein I would need to contact him to help officers set up emergency protective orders and the like.

During that time, Kopp struck me as a man of integrity. I can't think of a better man to see the system through its founding stages. Kopp is as fiscally conservative as they come in the Bay Area, is very knowledgeable about transit (his overestimation of SFO BART ridership aside) and won't let this project become a fiscal boondoggle. I don't think anyone else involved in its planning will either. So, "Yes" on 1A.

It's like a FPS — that costs $500,000

A cellphone-made photo of me behind the wheel of SamTrans' bus simulator at the agency's North Base. With me is SamTrans training manager Jeff Johnson. Photo by Ed Proctor

After tonight's SamTrans Citizen's Advisory Committee meeting — at which my cohorts unanimously passed my resolution accepting the need for a 2009 fare increase, but noting certain reservations — members took a tour of SamTrans' North Base facility, near San Francisco International Airport.

We saw the sprawling storage yard, maintenance garages, brake testing machines, dispatch center and crew facilities. But the most interesting thing on the tour was SamTrans' bus simulator, for which I was lucky enough to get a turn.

Made by a company that also makes flight simulators, the bus simulator provided a fairly realistic experience. You are surrounded 360 degrees by video screens, realistic sounds, force feedback on the steering wheel and vibrations resembling a diesel engine emanating from under the seat. A computer can simulate real traffic and weather conditions and I "drove" in a heavy urban setting, complete with heavy rain and suffocating fog (or, as I call it, summer in Daly City).

Driving a bus is a little more difficult than driving a car, or even a U-Haul truck (the biggest vehicle I have actually driven). The length of the vehicle makes tight turns very difficult, the heavy mass makes it almost impossible to stop quickly and smoothly and the power of the diesel engine is deceptive. Despite getting a mild case of vertigo (reminicent of playing Doom), I drove the equivalent of a couple miles and did fairly well: three curb strikes; five missed turn signals, mostly while changing lanes (the turn signals were in an unfamiliar place — the floorboard); one dead pedestrian.

To be fair, the last one was on purpose. Really.

Samtrans fare increase likely in February

With the rising costs of fuel making it all-but inevitable, the SamTrans board of directors on Wednesday set an Oct. 15 date for a public hearing to take input on a proposed fare increase.

SamTrans staff is proposing a raise in the $1.50 base fare to $1.75 per trip. Monthly pass prices would rise from $48 to $56 and a pack of 10 tokens would increase $2 to $14.50. Senior, disabled and youth fares would stay at their current levels. If approved, the new fare structure would take effect on Feb. 1, 2009.

When the matter came up before the Citizen’s Advisory Committee (of which yours truly is a member) last week, I think we all understood the inevitability for it. The price of diesel fuel has increased by more than $2 per gallon since the last SamTrans fare increase in 2005. I think the CAC knows that we can't hold the line against raising fares forever.

But I brought up what seemed to be a strange proposed pricing structure -- $14.50 for a pack of 10 tokens, $56 for a monthly pass. What's with the off-kilter odd amounts for those items? It turns out staff simply multipled the prices for those items by the same amount they increased the base fare. The CAC asked that the proposed rates for those items be rounded down to $14 and $55.

Staff members seemed receptive to our suggestions. In addition, I noted that there was no pricing proposal related to the "day pass," that we have been discussing to come online next Fall when SamTrans installs new fareboxes on its buses. I noted that, according to plan, day passes would arrive less than nine months after the proposed fare increase and it was time to start figuring out how they would fit into the SamTrans fare structure. Staff agreed, but I got the impression they thought it was still a little early to think about such matters.

When our esteemed chair, Wayne Kingsford Smith, summarized our discussion to the Board of Directors Wednesday, he basically told them that the CAC had “decided to sleep on it” and return with our recommendations in October. True, for the most part, but I wish Wayne had given the Board a little more regarding the concerns with the pricing structure. Oh well, it’ll look better coming in as part of a comprehensive report in October.

In any case, the staff report to the Board of Directors mentioned our request to round off the costs of tokens and the Board approved the Oct. 15 public hearing date. I hate fare increases, but I haven't heard any better proposal to help make up the increasing structural deficit in the SamTrans finances.

Statement in support of California High-Speed Rail

At today's meeting of the SamTrans Board of Directors, the board expressed a resolution in support of Proposition 1A (the High-Speed Rail bond measure). A couple of NIMBY cities in the county, Menlo Park and Atherton, have joined a lawsuit seeking to dismiss the project's environmental impact report. No doubt they're concerned that a year of construction related to the project will lower their average home value from $2.7 million to $2.4 million. Sigh.

Before the vote, I gave the Board the following testimony:

"I hate pitting constituency against constituency, city against city. But I hope that this Board and the JPB (Caltrain Joint Powers Board) at some point find an appropriate time to decry the lawsuit joined by the cities of Menlo Park and Atherton opposing High Speed Rail.

"This is an extremely positive project for San Mateo County as a whole, with great benefits from proposed stops at San Francisco International Airport and a possible stop in the South County. In addition, this project can assist Caltrain with electrification and grade separation projects.

"I used to live in San Mateo on East 40th Avenue, one block from the tracks, so I understand their concerns. But there is a big picture and I hope that this Board can remind Atherton and Menlo Park of that big picture."

I had at least three Board members (to remain nameless because I can say things they can't) thank me for my support at the end of the meeting, as well as a couple SamTrans/JPB employees.

Old school X-Men -- Neal Adams is the man!

Riding the bus home from work this afternoon, I finally got around to reading a comic I got at Comic-Con in about 2006 or 2007. It was a reprint collection of X-Men 59-61, cover-dated August 1969 and subsequent. I have to say that I was pleasantly surprised.

A lot of folks opine that the first great era of the X-Men came in the original Chris Claremont run, specifically from about issues 100-215 (interestingly, Claremont got his first X-Men credit with a "plot assist" in issue 59). But I think that the first really good X-Men run was the Roy Thomas/Neal Adams teaming 50 issues earlier. In this collection we had a couple decent, straight-forward Thomas plots chock full of action. The stories are a bit simplistic in places (Cyclops fooling a group of Sentinels into attacking the sun because -- as the greatest source of radiation in the solar system -- it causes mutation), but it's action-packed classic 1960s Thomas. A neat trivial point: Thomas not only displayed his well-known love of literature, but also confirmed in-story a long suspicion of mine that the mutated pterosaur Karl Lykos was indeed named "Sauron" after the Lord of the Rings character.

But the real revelation was the art of Neal Adams. I had previously seen his classic covers from the era (example: X-Men 58 below), but didn't know he had such a good storytelling style. The action flows smoothly, even with Adams' creative layouts. Great linework. I was really excited. It was work up there with the best of late 1960s Marvel.